This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second round continues Thursday from the grass courts of Wimbledon. A few prominent Australian players will be facing difficult matches, including a couple that are on upset alert and one that had the misfortune of drawing a top-five seed on the men’s side. Among the women, a couple of Cinderella stories have developed, but the clock’s likely to strike midnight on at least one of them. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Grass-court form can be notoriously hard to judge given the rapid transition from the slower clay to the faster grass, but recent results on all surfaces coupled with historic grass-court results and a look at playing style can usually provide an accurate approximation of a player’s ability on this surface. On top of those data points, we now have another big one, having seen these players in action already in the first round. The stakes are highest at the Grand Slams, and the men play best-of-five set matches rather than the best-of-three seen at other ATP Tour events. Conditions vary from tournament to tournament, and even from day to day, but the fast pace and low bounces of grass generally favor more aggressive players, and especially those that possess big serves. Using this context can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Filip Krajinovic (+265) vs. Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios had a surprisingly difficult time against 219th-ranked Paul Jubb in the first round, escaping 7-5 in the fifth set as Jubb converted just two of 13 break points. If the Aussie’s arm is just a little tired after that battle and Kyrgios’ big serve loses a little bite, that could provide just the opening Krajinovic needs. Krajinovic is ranked nine spots ahead of Kygrios at No. 31 in the world and has enjoyed some grass-court success in 2022. The veteran Serb’s 5-1 on the surface this year, having beaten Marin Cilic en route to the final of Queen’s Club leading up to Wimbledon before losing to Matteo Berrettini.
Catherine Harrison (+450) vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
Harrison’s worth a flier as a significant underdog against an inconsistent opponent in Tomljanovic. While Tomljanovic reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon last year, she has been past the second round only two other times in 30 Grand Slam appearances, and she tends to play up to tough opponents and down to lower-ranked players, which is why she’s ranked just 44th in the world. Harrison’s a 28-year-old American ranked outside the top 200, but she’s enjoying the tournament of her life thus far, having won all eight of her sets here to get through three qualifying matches before beating Arantxa Rus 6-1, 6-4 in the first round.
Ana Bogdan (+310) vs. Petra Kvitova
Lock It In
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-290) vs. Harmony Tan
Tan’s first-round win over Serena Williams had plenty of drama and storylines, but it wasn’t a very high quality match. The 115th-ranked Frenchwoman’s slice forehand may have been effective against Williams, whose movement was far from WTA Tour-level after over a year off at age 40, but Sorribes Tormo shouldn’t have any issues handling that shot. The 45th-ranked Spaniard is one of the fittest players on tour, while Tan was feeling some physical aftereffects following her three-hour, 11-minute win over Williams. Tan withdrew from the women’s doubles Wednesday, citing a thigh injury, much to the chagrin of doubles partner Tamara Korpatsch.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-575) vs. Jordan Thompson
Tsitsipas has had some early round adventures in recent Grand Slams, but this should be a straightforward match for the world No. 5 against the 76th-ranked Thompson. With a 3-5 career record at Wimbledon, Thompson hasn’t been especially effective on grass, and he lacks the weapons necessary to take control of points against the well-rounded Tsitsipas, who comes into this one on a five-match winning streak after winning a grass-court tune-up in Mallorca.
Amanda Anisimova (-370) vs. Lauren Davis
Jack Draper (+145) vs. Alex de Minaur
Draper has grown up playing on grass as a local kid, and the 20-year-old Brit’s big serve and forehand will allow him to control play against the counterpunching de Minaur, who has to work significantly harder to hold serve on this surface. The 27th-ranked Australian is just 5-5 in his last 10 matches, while Draper’s world No. 94 ranking doesn’t accurately capture his recent level. Look for the crowd support on No. 1 Court to lift Draper in what should be a tight match.
Denis Shapovalov (-150) vs. Brandon Nakashima
Shapovalov’s a bargain at just -150 odds given the difference in prior Grand Slam results between these two players. The 16th-ranked Canadian brought a six-match losing streak into Wimbledon, but he got back on track with a five-set first-round win over Arthur Rinderknech, who is ranked just six spots behind Nakashima at No. 62. That win gave Shapovalov a 6-1 record in his last seven Wimbledon matches, as he reached the semifinals here last year. Meanwhile, Nakashima’s just 5-5 in Grand Slam matches, and the 20-year-old American doesn’t get many free points on serve, unlike Shapovalov.
Bianca Andreescu (-140) vs. Elena Rybakina