With the 2023 NBA Finals upon us, we give you some detailed analyses, useful stats and lots of outright and game-per-game free betting tips below. Will the Denver Nuggets win their first NBA Title? Or will the Miami Heat become the first-ever 8th seed to win the title? Let us start with some outright predictions.
These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.
Our Outright 2023 NBA Finals Predictions
Denver Nuggets Champions
Our first NBA Finals betting prediction backs the Nuggets to win their first-ever NBA title. Denver reached their first NBA Finals with a 12-3 playoff run. At home, they are 8-0. Their leader Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple double so far in these playoffs. His main helpers Murray and Gordon are also playing above their regular season averages and as a result, Denver have by far the best attack in the postseason – 120.7 points per 100 possessions.
There is a reason why Denver’s odds for the title are so low and this is all Denver’s doing as they were hugely decisive in all of their playoff series. At the same time, Miami already defied the odds twice and they needed 7 games in the Eastern Conference finals so fatigue will play a huge factor at least in the first few games and we’ve already seen that it’s hard to beat the Nuggets once they storm into an early lead in a playoff series.
Odds: 1/4 (-400)
NBA Finals MVP – Nikola Jokic
Our second NBA Finals betting tip backs Nikola Jokic to win the Finals MVP trophy. Jokic was just crowned the Western Conference finals MVP. He’s putting in historic numbers so far in these playoffs – 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. There hasn’t been a defence that could stop him and if Denver are to win the title it will be very likely that Jokic will be their most valuable player.
Jamal Murray might have something to say about that as he is playing at an all-time great level in the playoffs. However, no big has ever averaged a triple double in the playoffs and Jokic already broke the all-time NBA record for the most playoff triple doubles in the same season, so we back the Serbian to add to his cabinet this trophy he has never had the chance to win before.
Odds: 1/3 (-300)
Nikola Jokic Over 10 Rebounds in Each of the First 4 Games
Our final free betting tip stays with Nikola Jokic. We think he has a very good chance to record over 10 rebounds in each of the first 4 games of these NBA Finals. Jokic is averaging 13.3 rebounds per game in these playoffs. He had 10 or more rebounds in 12 of the 15 playoff games so far.
During the Western Conference finals and against Anthony Davies Jokic averaged 14.5 rebounds over the 4 games the Nuggets won. Now, up against the much smaller Bam Adebayo we really fancy Jokic’s chances to be going over 10 rebounds in each of the first 4 games of these Finals.
Odds: 2/1 (+200)
NBA Finals Betting Predictions For Game 1
We’ll get specific now! While you can see a bunch of outright NBA Finals betting tips above now we’ll focus all our attention on game 1 which viewers from all around the world can enjoy watching on their screens even if they can’t make it to Denver.
Denver Nuggets Over 114.5 Points
Our first NBA Finals betting prediction backs the Nuggets to cover their points spread for game 1. Denver come into the NBA Finals having the best offence in the playoffs with 120.7 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets went above that spread in 5 o of their 8 home games so far this postseason. They also scored 124 points when hosting Miami during the regular season.
With Jokic and company also having all these extra days to rest after their 4-0 triumph over the Lakers we think Denver will have a decisive fitness edge in this game 1, with Miami’s players exhausted after their 67-game thriller vs the Celtics and also set to travel to Denver for this game.
Odds: 10/11 (-191)
Jimmy Butler Under 28.5 Points
Our second NBA Finals betting tip for game 1 looks at Miami’s leader Jimmy Butler and more specifically his chances to cover his points spread. We don’t think Butler will manage to do so. In the entire league, Denver’s forward Aaron Gordon is probably the best-suited player to guard Butler and now it will be exactly number 50 in Denver shirt that will be doing that. Gordon already suffocated the likes of Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant and LeBron James in these playoffs. His size will also make it very hard for Jimmy to score easily.
Butler went over this spread only twice in the 7 games vs the Celtics. He failed to do that even once in the 5 round 2 clashes vs the Knicks. His points explosions were mainly restricted to round 1 vs the Bucks when he scored 30+ points in 4 of the 5 games. In the last 2 playoff series, Butler’s points average had been just 24.7, well below his spread for game 1.
Odds: 4/5 (-125)
Nuggets to Win Game 1 and to Win the Series
Our last NBA Finals prediction for game 1 is a more broader one. We back the Nuggets to win both game 1 and the entire series. Denver had an impressive home record during the regular season but they had been even better this postseason with an 8-0 run at Ball Arena. We don’t think they will make the mistake to start these finals with a loss and if Denver takes the lead in this series in which they are the heavy favourites anyway we can see them running away with things and lifting the title.