Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Emil Ruusuvuori in the Chengdu Open at 16/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK)

1pt e.w. Christopher O’Connell in the Chengdu Open at 33/1 (Unibet)

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Chengdu Open

• Chengdu, China (outdoor hard)

The ATP Tour is back in China for first time since 2019 this week with two 250-level events.

It was good to land both winners of the recent US Open in this column but I’ve always felt these lower-level tournaments offer the greatest value.

With relatively few ranking points on offer, the motivation levels of some of the top names are often open to question, whereas some of those further down the market will consider weeks such as this a major opportunity to claim an ATP title.

Next week, there’s a 500-level event in Beijing and that’s followed by the Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai so clearly there are bigger and better prizes on offer for the likes of Alex Zverev, who is the top seed in Chengdu this week.

He played well at the US Open, beating Jannik Sinner en route to the last eight, although once there he was well beaten by Carlos Alcaraz.

We have some notable altitude at this week’s event – they are around 500m above sea level in south-west China – and that should give Zverev’s big serve even greater ‘pop’ on the outdoor hardcourts.

However, I come back to that point about motivation levels and I’m simply not convinced that Zverev will have prioritised this tournament given what’s to come.

At no bigger than 2/1, he looks worth swerving.

Instead, there’s a tasty-looking 33/1 shot as an alternative in the top half of the draw, namely CHRISTOPHER O’CONNELL.

The Australian has enjoyed a fine season, impressing on both the clay and the grass. Indeed, I remember backing him at 33/1 in Geneva only for him to lose narrowly in the quarter-finals.

He is the same price this week and that’s definitely worth an interest.

Having taken a set off eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev at the US Open, O’Connell packed his bags and headed straight to China where he’s played the last two weeks on the Challenger Tour.

Many of this field spent last week playing in the Davis Cup, several on different surfaces and/or indoors, so the 29-year-old should be among the best prepared in this field.

In the first of those Challengers, O’Connell won the title in Shanghai without losing a set and his comments afterwards were certainly encouraging for further success.

“I loved playing here,” he said.

“As soon as I arrived here, I felt pretty comfortable. It was a tough trip coming from the US Open, playing a tough match against Medvedev.

“I continued playing some really good tennis. I love the conditions here, the humidity. I’ve been training prior to the US Open in Florida with conditions similar to this, so that really helped with how I played this week.”

The humidity aspect should be in play again this week.

O’Connell climbed to a new career-high of 53 in the rankings after his Shanghai win and immediately set a goal of finishing the year inside the top 50.

Clearly, he’s motivated to the max right now and a good run here could well propel him inside that line.

An each-way play at 33s looks very much worthwhile.

In the bottom half, second seed Lorenzo Musetti is worth taking on.

He was out of sorts in Bologna last week when playing Davis Cup for Italy, who struggled through to the last eight.

Musetti was stunned by world number 161 Gabriel Diallo in Italy’s first tie and was duly dropped from singles duty after that.

There definitely look better options in this section.

Some will side with Alexander Bublik at 16/1.

He was runner-up here the last time the tournament was played in 2019 and is another with a big serve which should get some cut-through in what should be fairly quick conditions.

However, as long-term readers will know, I’ve been burned a few too many times by a player who often decides to throw in the towel when things aren’t going well.

At the same price, I prefer the chances of EMIL RUUSUVUORI.

He’s a possible second-round opponent for Bublik but the Finn leads their head-to-head 3-1, winning all three encounters played outdoors.

Ruusuvuori should arrive in great spirits having guided Finland into the last eight of the Davis Cup – a huge upset given they were widely expected to finish bottom of a group which also featured Croatia, USA and Netherlands.

He beat Tommy Paul and Borna Gojo in Split and while he hasn’t had a great deal of time to adjust to the new conditions, it’s notable that his only previous ATP final came at a similar altitude – in Pune last season.

Ruusuvuori, who also made the third round of the US Open, has had his best results on faster surfaces and he should get that this week so he gets the nod.

I also considered Brandon Nakashima in this section.

The American’s serve should be tough to break here – expect him to extend his remarkable record of playing tie-breaks – and I think he could well topple seed Dan Evans in round two, the Briton having had a tough week both physically and mentally in Davis Cup.

Still, while not playing badly, Nakashima has struggled to win matches consistently of late, often suffering narrow defeats.

His return game isn’t the best (hence the tie-breaks) and so preference would be for him to beat Evans should they meet, rather than an outright bet.

Huafa Properties Zhuhai Championships

• Zhuhai, China (outdoor hard)

Will appear here…

Posted at 1145 BST on 19/09/23

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