We only need the Philadelphia Eagles to not lose by more than 8 points, and we will win our teaser bet from last week. That’s a pretty good feeling heading into tonight’s midseason Super Bowl.
The first leg was for the Minnesota Vikings to also not lose by more than 8 points. They ended up falling short to the Denver Broncos 21-20. This one wasn’t a sweat at all.
What am I talking about exactly?
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What is a Teaser?
A teaser is a type of parlay bet where the bettor can manipulate the betting line in their favor. You can add or subtract points from the spread. That, of course, comes at a cost. You don’t get the typical parlay payout, but (-120) for a two-team teaser has incredible value.
Choosing which games and/or adding too many legs to your teaser is very easy. When you look at the weekly lineup of NFL betting odds, there are usually 3 or 4 that look good to you. Now, give them and as many others as you like 6-10 more points apiece.
The next thing you know, you will have thrown a couple of units onto a 6-leg or longer teaser. Hey, maybe you win, but there is a proven basic strategy in place already that will help you win in the long term.
What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?
A basic strategy teaser is one that the bettor uses to pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7, whether it be teasing an underdog up or teasing that betting favorite down.
For example, we are looking for betting underdogs of (+1.5) to (+2.5). Using this strategy, we add 6 points to these odds, making them (+7.5) to (+8.5).
To tease a betting favorite down, we look for teams with odds of (+7.5) to (+8.5) and turn them into betting favorites of just (-1.5) to (-2.5).
More games end with a point differential of 3 than any other, by far at nearly 16%. A distant second place is the key number of 7 with about 8.5%.
We only want two legs in our basic strategy teaser. That pays out at (-120). It used to be (-110), but the sportsbooks had to adjust. That’s how you know the strategy works.
Here are a couple of tips to go along with the rules.
I have had more success teasing underdogs up than I have teasing favorites down, but everyone’s eye is different. It’s also nice to look for games with a low point total. That way our 6 points mean more.
Last week, we had only two potential teams with the odds needed for our basic strategy teaser. It is usually more than that, and some of the lines will move throughout the week. We only have three potential games to tease this week, but two of them I like quite a bit.
Potential Week 12 Teaser Games
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) vs Detroit Lions (-7.5)
In this Thanksgiving Day game between the Lions and the Packers, we are looking at teasing the betting favorite down through those key numbers.
I love Detroit here. There is a reason that the sportsbooks have them as more than a touchdown favorite. They’re at home and have the significantly better offensive unit of the two teams.
The defenses are both better than average. Both of these teams are coming off of emotional wins, and it’s a short week. I love the idea of teasing Detroit down to favorites of just (-2.5).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) vs Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
We are now looking at teasing an underdog up, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On the surface, this one looks great. The Bucs won’t have to deal with any gnarly weather playing in the dome in Indianapolis.
The Colts are coming off of a bye week, though, while the Bucs kept quarterback Baker Mayfield busy in a losing effort against the 49ers. Tampa did hold them to 101 yards on the ground on 31 carries.
That is a number that stands out to me. If you can stop a team from running the ball consistently, you will probably keep it close.
Let’s see what the other game looks like.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Did I just read that the Cleveland Browns signed Joe Flacco?!
That was a true double-take moment. They have said he won’t be the starter, though. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who played the entire game against a ruthless Steeler defense, will be under center to start the game.
They got the win, but it was a 13-10 victory. Thompson-Robinson didn’t lose the game for them, which was most important. He was 24/43 for 165 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, though. That is less than 4 yards per pass.
However, the Browns are used to this. Deshaun Watson was never 100% this year and never once looked anywhere near his old self. P.J. Walker has had to start several games for the Browns this year.
Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, conversely, are riding a mile high, if you will, after their fourth consecutive win with victories in their last three over the Chiefs, Bills, and Vikings.
Sean Payton is my longshot to win the Coach of the Year. It was a rough start, but this team looks as if they could make a serious push for the postseason.
The Browns’ defense should keep this one close, but with a third-stringer under center on the road, I can’t pull the trigger.
Week 12 Teaser Prediction
Pick: Detroit Lions (-2.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5): -120
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