Image: Steve Hart
Protagonist is one of the leading contenders in the Doncaster Mile
A capacity field has been assembled for the Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Randwick this Saturday, where All Star Mile winner Mr Brightside is favourite.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Doncaster Mile.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Doncaster Mile
Despite being a full field, there isn’t much front end pressure to my eye. Gentleman Roy should find the front, relatively comfortably. Alligator Blood will be handy, while Nugget potentially slides across from the wide gate, as does Cepheus. Protagonist sat handy in the Sky High and maps to get an ideal run, likewise Prelude winner Bandersnatch. Mr Brightside, drawn gate two, will likely be three back the fence.
1. Alligator Blood: The front end pressure will determine his winning claims. He found a hot tempo in the All Star Mile and looked the winner on the turn but he got the staggers late and tired to run fourth. The tempo won’t be as hot, you’d assume, and he is the best horse in the race, by some distance. A win wouldn’t shock at all.
2. Mr Brightside: He’s clearly likeable. Given a 12/10 by Currie to win the All Star Mile and gets a big upgrade with Zac Purton taking over. Maps to get a perfect run in transit, he won the race last year, he’ll be strong late…hard to beat.
3. Kirwan’s Lane: Kirwan’s Lane is ticking along beautifully towards this race. He won his way into via The Ingham in December and in two WFA runs this prep, he has been good. Really caught the eye in the Canterbury Stakes and was far from disgraced in the George Ryder. He gets right down in the weights now, he gets a big race rider in Ben Melham to steer and despite drawing wide, he’s a big enough price to entertain being a small bet.
4. My Oberon: He just hasn’t come up. Keats was gone 1000m out in the All Star Mile yet still beat this guy home, which is a big concern leading into this.
5. Fangirl: No matter how you look at it, Fangirl is just so well in at the weights given the form around her. She has been the bride for Anamoe throughout this prep, the latest in the George Ryder where she really attacked the line with purpose to finish second. Gets Moreira aboard, she’ll be strong late, handles all conditions…she has plenty going for her.
6. Going Global: Former American mare who comes here with an imposing record. Mile specialist that now has the Waller polish, easy to see why some will fancy her. I will say though, her trial to get ready was on the plain side, so whether she needs more time to settle into Australian life, not sure, but dismiss a Waller runner in a Doncaster at your peril.
7. Converge: I did have a chuckle when I read some think this guy will start favourite in this race. He was well and truly blessed in run in the George Ryder and had every right to stick on like he did behind Anamoe. That is the A1 form, but that is the first sign of positive form from him in over 12 months. Can’t entertain him.
8. Duke De Sessa: He could be a moral, potentially. His form when with Dermott Weld was at 2000m+ and has the profile of being a Melbourne Cup horse later in the year. The fact he trialled like a jet and is first up at a mile here…gee he is interesting. Fascinating watch from a market perspective.
9. Gentleman Roy: He was near the fast speed in the All Star Mile and battled on well enough albeit did tire late. He will get a much better run on speed this time around…but can’t see him turning the tables.
10. Lion’s Roar: Still not over him getting beat at $101 in The Ingham to Kirwan’s Lane. Did a really good job fresh in the George Ryder…just not sure he is sharp enough for these, but I reckon keep an eye on him with an eye towards potentially Brisbane.
11. Nugget: He has done a super job this time in, but there are signs he is looking for the paddock. Not for me here.
12. Bandersnatch: Got the A1 run in transit last Saturday in the Prelude but even allowing for that, gee he was dominant and strong late. He maps to get an ideal run, he’s down in the weights, on the back up, mile no issue…another where you have to say he’s a winning chance.
13. Golden Mile: Has he come up? Forgive the George Ryder when slow to recover, but his two runs prior…I just don’t know about him. He is right down in the weights, he’ll do no work in the run…I think he is one you have to risk.
14. Mustang Valley: Given the pattern, I thought her run in the Coolmore was more than credible behind Espiona. She tumbles in weight and will settle much closer in the run. Another where you can’t totally dismiss.
15. Hope In Your Valley: Could nearly have her top pick had she drawn inside. Her task is made hard by the gate, but she is absolutely flying and gee she was outstanding in defeat in the Coolmore. I think she is a must for multiples.
16. Zougotcha: She is a winner of the Flight Stakes at the Randwick mile, but I still have my doubts on her running 1600m, especially against the big boys and girls here. Just a win in the Phar Lap I thought when more was expected…I think she is one I am keen to oppose.
17. Protagonist: Protagonist is a great each way gamble. He has the Haggas polish and has the platform of the 2000m run under the belt for the tough Randwick mile. Strong win in the Sky High three weeks ago, finishing best in a driving go under J Mac. He gets right down in the weights here, he’ll be strong late…he just doesn’t want the track to be too wet. If it is Good4/Soft5, he’ll do me.
18. Cepheus: Flattered in the Ajax I thought where the pattern was up/in. Yes, ran good time and was strong, but the bias was hot that day and he was massively advantaged by it. Won’t get that red carpet treatment here. Not for me.
19. Communist: Randwick Guineas winner who was far from disgraced in the George Ryder but he looks tested here.
20. Lindermann: Great front running ride from Nash saw him win the Rosehill Guineas. That was the difference between winning and losing. Will have to do work to land on speed and just don’t think he has the brilliance.
21. Osipenko (First Emergency): Given M Dee is booked for this guy, I am thinking he is going to get a run at the expense of a stablemate potentially? He was good in defeat in the George Ryder off a set back and this has been the plan all along for him, and the stable use M Dee as their #1 rider when J Mac isn’t available.
22. Bankers Choice (Second Emergency): Going well enough to run top half but can’t see him threatening.
23. Diamil (Third Emergency): Closed off well enough last Saturday in the Prelude but he isn’t up to this level.
24. Pride Of Jenni (Fourth Emergency): Doubt she gets a run and instead goes around next weekend in the Queen Of The Turf.
I am having a $10 Win/$90 Place on Protagonist. He is the one I have liked for this race for a couple of weeks and won’t be dropping off.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5350
Group l Strategy Return: $3809.50
1. Alligator Blood (12)
J: Tim Clark
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
2. Mr Brightside (2)
J: Zac Purton
T: Ben & Jd Hayes
3. Kirwan’s Lane (24)
J: Ben Melham
T: John O’shea
4. My Oberon (7)
J: John Allen
T: Annabel Neasham
5. Fangirl (19)
J: Joao Moreira
T: Chris Waller
6. Going Global (4)
J: Brenton Avdulla
T: Chris Waller
7. Converge (6)
J: Brett Prebble
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
8. Duke De Sessa (9)
J: Dylan Gibbons
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
9. Gentleman Roy (10)
J: Ms Rachel King
T: Ben & Jd Hayes
10. Lion’s Roar (17)
J: Craig Newitt
T: John O’shea
11. Nugget (22)
J: Andrew Gibbons
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
12. Bandersnatch (5)
J: Taylor Marshall
T: Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes
13. Golden Mile (11)
J: Zac Lloyd
T: James Cummings
14. Mustang Valley (3)
J: Rachel King
T: Andrew Forsman
15. Hope In Your Heart (23)
J: Jay Ford
T: Kerry Parker
16. Zougotcha (13)
J: Kerrin Mcevoy
T: Chris Waller
17. Protagonist (8)
J: Ben Thompson
T: W J Haggas
18. Cepheus (16)
J: Dean Yendall
T: Matthew Dunn
19. Communist (21)
J: Tyler Schiller
T: Michael Freedman
20. Lindermann (18)
J: Dean Holland
T: Chris Waller
21. Osipenko (1)
J: Michael Dee
T: Chris Waller
22. Bankers Choice (15)
J: Brock Ryan
T: Michael Moroney
23. Diamil (20)
J: Reece Jones
T: John O’shea
24. Pride Of Jenni (14)
J: Robbie Dolan
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
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