Cricket betting tips: ODI, England v New Zealand

2pts New Zealand to beat England at 7/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1.5pts Matt Henry top New Zealand bowler at 4/1 (Boylesports)

0.5pts Matt Henry Man of the Match at 20/1 (Unibet)

2pts Reece Topley top England bowler at 7/2 (General)

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After four T20Is and two more ODIs, there is nothing to separate England and New Zealand, with the current 50-over series tied at 1-1 after the T20 equivalent finished all square. This has been a recurring theme when these two white-ball teams have met in recent years, and the final two matches of the summer promise much.

In truth, England will be mightily relived to have got back to 1-1 having been hammered by eight wickets in the opening ODI, and then slipped to 8-3 batting first in the second game before Liam Livingstone turned the contest on its head with a brutal, unbeaten 95.

That England have any number of fearless, game-changers within their ranks always means opposing them is fraught with danger but, on what we’ve seen so far this summer, added with some injury concerns around the home squad, NEW ZEALAND look far too big priced up at 7/4 for Wednesday’s meeting at the Oval.

England’s middle order is full of brawn and power, with Livingstone and Jos Buttler already impressing, while Joe Root surely won’t stay quiet for long. But Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow have both missed cricket in the series already due to injuries, meaning Harry Brook has been asked to bat out of position at the top of the order.

And New Zealand’s batting is hardly overmatched, with Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell making brilliant hundreds in the first match. Glenn Phillips batting down at number six tells you this is a very strong line-up, if not quite as powerful as England’s, and there is some depth to it, too.

But it’s with the ball that New Zealand appear to hold the edge. Adil Rashid missed Sunday’s game with a calf issue, Mark Wood appears unlikely to be risked until the World Cup, and that leaves England heavily reliant Reece Topley and Gus Atkinson, though the Oval is a home match for both, and the latter has made a fine start to his international career.

Nevertheless, with Rashid a doubt for Wednesday, New Zealand look to hold the advantage in the spin department through Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi and the emerging Rachin Ravindra. And in Tim Southee, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson and Trent Boult, their pace stocks are particularly strong.

Boult was outstanding on his return to the national team in Southampton, finishing with 3-37 after his initial burst ripped through England’s top order. He is a world-class performer who leads this Kiwi attack expertly, but I expect MATT HENRY to bowl really well on this ground and will be backing him to do the business.

Henry is an old favourite of mine, but with good reason, having taken 128 wickets at an average of 26.07 in this format in a fine career to date. A tall man who delivers from a high release point and tends to seam rather than swing the ball, Henry should be the perfect fit for the Oval and on his sole previous ODI appearance on this ground in 2019, took 4-47 against Bangladesh.

Having been one of the key performers in Somerset’s march to T20 Blast glory earlier in the summer, I reckon Henry has bowled much better than his figures would suggest in this series so far, and a big haul should be just around the corner. I’ll be backing him to be top New Zealand bowler at 4/1 (Boylesports) and Man of the Match at 20/1 (Unibet).

In terms of England, I do like the claims of REECE TOPLEY on his home ground, and the general 7/2 about him in the top England bowler market makes obvious appeal.

Another tall man who hits the pitch hard and gets lots of bounce, the good pace and carry on offer at the Oval will really suit Topley and he is a bowler who has a knack of picking up wickets in batches. I thought he looked rusty in the series opener but came alive when taking 3-27 from seven impressive overs on Sunday, including two wickets in the same over.

He seems to be working himself into top shape for the impending World Cup and another strong showing should be in the offing on Wednesday. At the prices, and with Wood and Rashid likely absentees once more, I’ll stick with Topley.

Posted at 1615 BST on 11/09/2023

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