Defending champion Jessica Pegula safely progressed into the semifinal of the 2024 National Bank Open in Toronto, Canada. It’s been a tournament full of upsets where top seeds have been falling like flies. But not Pegula, who is not ready to surrender her crown.

The 30-year-old American dealt with another big hitter in compatriot Peyton Stearns, winning 6-4, 7-5 in Saturday’s quarterfinal. Pegula hammered seven aces to two double faults in the victory. She landed 57% first serves and won 72% first-serve points (26/36). She won 70% second-serve points (19/27) and converted three of 10 break points. 

World No. 24 Diana Shnaider is looking to win the biggest WTA title of her young career, and she’s just two wins away. This has been a mesmeric run by the 20-year-old Russian lefty who scored one of the best wins of her career by beating World No. 2 and top seed Coco Gauff in the round of 16.

She backed up that result by knocking out countrywoman Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinal in a match that took 27 games to decide and two hours of play. Shnaider was the more consistent of the two big-hitting women, tallying five aces to three double faults and winning 74% first-serve points (39/53) and 65% second-serve points (20/31). She converted three of seven break points and saved three of four on her own serve.

Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Head-To-Head

• Pegula and Shnaider have never played each other at any level before this.

Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider prediction

Diana Shanider is guaranteed to make her Top 20 debut after this tournament, and that’s a massive achievement. She’s been ripping that forehand with aplomb all season, winning three titles on three different surfaces. But Pegula has found her radar after an injury-ravaged first half of the season. She’s got the presence of mind that she needs to defend this title. She’s also a player who is very capable of handling the heavy ball that Shnaider will bring to the table.