Predictions for the IT job market

In our previous article on the long-term future of IT jobs, we reported that the BLS predicted job growth of 3% for the ten-year period between 2022-2032 and the addition of approximately 4.7M jobs. In their new 2023-2033 data, the agency projects 4% job growth with an increase of 6.7M jobs.

While this more positive outlook is encouraging news, the aggregate numbers do not tell the whole story. The BLS notes that future job growth will be primarily driven by the healthcare and social assistance sector. Because we care about occupations in the information technology field, we’ll have to dive deeper into the data.

Overall, the news is positive for those in the IT field. Of the 13 occupations we’re tracking, 11 of them are expected to see 5% or greater growth in job openings over the next 10 years, with the number of information security positions predicted to grow at an astounding 33% (more than 8x the national average for all jobs).

The ten-year job growth projections are also particularly positive—more than 3x the average—for the following occupations: Software developers (+18%), IT managers (17%), and computer network architects (+13%).

However, the outlook is not universally optimistic. The number of job openings for computer programmers is expected to fall by 10% over the next ten years. Additionally, while previous projections for network and computer systems administrators were flat or slightly positive, the BLS now sees the number of systems administrator positions declining by 3% by 2023.

Reading between the lines, more specialized IT occupations (e,g, security, software or infrastructure design, databases, etc.) and leadership roles will be more in demand, while more generalized positions (e.g., support and administration roles, or coding jobs that don’t involve high-level design) are expected to be less in demand.

Year-over-year changes to IT job projections

Because the BLS publishes job projections every year, we can track whether they believe a job is increasing or declining in popularity over time.

The chart below shows the biggest movers over the last year, in terms of absolute change in ten-year growth projections. On the positive side, computer network architect roles were previously expected to increase by 3.5% over ten years, they’re now expected to grow by 13.4%.

On the opposite end of the chart, while the following roles are still expected to grow faster than the national average of 4% over the next ten years,  the BLS has tempered a more glowing outlook for web and digital interface designers, software developers, web developers, and software quality assurance analysts and testers.

Despite these year-over-year declines, it’s important to reiterate that 11 out of 13 occupations in the IT field are expected to grow faster than the national average. And while the latest data does point to declines, like a weather forecast, job projections are not set in stone.

Many factors can influence the future—both positive and negative—including demographic trends, advancements in technology, and unforeseen world events (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic). While the BLS projections are a very useful tool to inform career planning, things rarely go exactly according to the plan.

MORE ON IT JOB ROLES