Poor Daniel Jones.

Danny Dimes got booed by his own New York Giants fans on his walk to his car after Sunday’s ugly loss to the Minnesota Vikings, a new low even for him. Some people holding over-6.5 win tickets may have ripped them up right there.

Not me.

Week 2 in the NFL is about overreacting for many. For me, it’s about closing my eyes and doubling down — on Danny Nickels not being terrible, on the Atlanta Falcons offense, on the Cleveland Browns defense, on Joe Burrow, on the New England Patriots being very bad, on the rookie quarterbacks struggling …

As far as Danny Pennies, he has a chance to regain his confidence against a Washington Commanders defense that made Baker Mayfield look like Dan Marino. He gets to play on the road in front of friendly fans and get Malik Nabers’ Rookie of the Year campaign back on track.

As for us, we’re not too far off course. We were 2-2-1 on best bets and had a couple of half-point losses and a Tennessee Titans collapse otherwise. Plus, we got you all onboard on the Josh Allen 8-1 MVP Express.

Last week’s record: 6-9-1 against the spread, 2-2-1 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

The Dolphins are already limping at running back, and Allen is playing with a banged-up non-throwing hand. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to exploit a Bills defense that is soft in the middle without Matt Milano. We’ll take the best pass rush, as the Dolphins will have a tough time bothering left tackle Dion Dawkins and Allen, who ranked second in EPA per dropback after Week 1 at 0.46 and third in passer rating at 137.7. The Bills’ Greg Rousseau, meanwhile, had three sacks against the Cardinals and leads the NFL in defensive production rating among pass rushers. Old man Von Miller also looked like a problem again.

The pick: Bills 

GO DEEPER

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The Ravens had a chance to beat the Chiefs last week but Lamar Jackson missed wide and long on some throws late. The Raiders, meanwhile. let one slip away last week. The 22-10 final score is a little misleading, as it was 9-7 after three quarters. This should be another defensive battle; pass rushers Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins should be able to get home more often as the Ravens’ offensive line is worse than the Chargers’. Can the Raiders’ defense slow down Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ run game? Can Gardner Minshew II throw for more than 4.5 air yards per attempt — worst in the league? We’ll go with a strong maybe on both and take the generous points.

The pick: Raiders 

It’s painfully hard to double down on Bryce Young and the Panthers, who I picked and got marched on by the Saints. But … the improved Panthers offensive line actually played OK last week, and Young does have some better receivers than he did a year ago. And while the Panthers defense took a brutal hit with the loss of Derrick Brown, I still say the Chargers have no offensive playmakers. (And yeah, that includes J.K. Dobbins, who after a slow start ended up with a pretty good day against the Raiders.) It looks to me like a field goal game, as long as Young is not terrible. (And that may be asking too much — Young is the second-worst quarterback since 2001 through 17 career starts. He ranks 97th among 98 qualified quarterbacks with a -0.22 EPA per dropback rate and 98th in total QB EPA at -143.1.) One more thing: Justin Herbert is 12-17 against the spread as a favorite of a field goal or more.

The pick: Panthers 

Bryce Young and the Panthers will try to bounce back from a brutal season opener. (Stephen Lew / USA Today)

Derek Carr is back, baby. He was wheeling and dealing and making the Raiders wish they had held on to him a couple of years ago. If only the season was a week long. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys lay out the red carpet for Carr, as their pass rush will do things to the Saints’ feeble offensive line the Panthers couldn’t even dream about last week. (Carr only felt pressure on 12 percent of his dropbacks.) The Cowboys rank No. 1 in defensive production rating, sacks (six), pressures (24) and splash plays per snaps (1.9). The Cowboys also have some offensive line concerns after their cupboard was plucked from this offseason, but the Saints don’t have much resistance to offer. Dak Prescott will have plenty of time to bounce back from a bad game (EPA per dropback rate of -0.26) in the easy win over the Browns. One more thing: Prescott is 21-9 ATS at home as a favorite of six points or more.

The pick: Cowboys 

The Buccaneers had no answer against the Lions offense in the playoffs last season, and now they travel to face them without their best defensive player, Antoine Winfield Jr. Jared Goff didn’t play that well last week, and while some may think the Lions are in for a letdown after beating their former quarterback Matthew Stafford in overtime on national television, I think the offense will be hungry to score more than 10 points a half. And then thanks to an improved secondary, pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will have Mayfield in his sights. Hutchinson ranked tied for first in the league with Parsons with 11 pressures last week, while teammate Marcus Davenport had six.

The pick: Lions 

GO DEEPER

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Malik Willis is terrible and the Packers are cooked without Jordan Love, right? That’s why this point spread keeps climbing. The Colts as favorites in Green Bay is plenty scary, though. Let me see if I can find a path to backing the Packers …. The Packers’ run defense struggled last week and it’s hard to see them shutting down Jonathan Taylor, but they should be OK against bombs-away Anthony Richardson, who completed 47 percent of his passes last week. He is still practically a rookie playing in hostile territory. On defense, the Colts will stack the box against Josh Jacobs and force Willis to beat them … but isn’t Matt LaFleur a guru? And who is going to cover Jayden Reed, who leads the NFL with a 1.68 EPA per target/carry rate and a 2.6 EPA per reception rate. That’s enough breadcrumbs — Packers lose by a field goal and cover.

The pick: Packers 

Deshaun Watson will play this week, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said Wednesday following Tuesday’s filing of the latest lawsuit against Watson alleging sexual assault. Cleveland’s offense with Watson was rough in the opener and the Browns also have a banged-up offensive line. But my focus here is on a really good Browns defense (No. 1 against the run) that carried Cleveland last season and is coming off a bad performance against the Cowboys. The Browns only pressured Prescott on 20 percent of his dropbacks, second worst in the NFL. They will bounce back against a feeble Jaguars offensive line and a mysteriously gun-shy quarterback. Trevor Lawrence was the only QB in the league last week to not throw a single pass into a tight window. And he still completed passes at 10 percent below expectation, sixth lowest among all QBs.

The pick: Browns 

Will Christian McCaffrey play? Eh. He might, but he probably can rest up some more, as Jordan Mason was the latest example Monday night of why running backs don’t matter. And in this matchup, the Vikings secondary will be exposed by all of the 49ers targets, and one of them, Brandon Aiyuk, will knock off some more rust and won’t be dropping touchdowns like he did against the Jets. Plus, we have another double-down opportunity. Sam Darnold looked good last week against the shellshocked Giants, but the Niners know their former backup well and will expose all his flaws. Darnold was 5-for-5 for 81 yards and two touchdowns when the Giants blitzed him, but the 49ers will be able to apply pressure without exposing themselves. I don’t care if the 49ers are traveling halfway across the country on a short week, the Vikings are just too outclassed.

The pick: 49ers 

Brandon Aiyuk will shake off some of that hold-in rust in Week 2. (Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

The Patriots shocked the world last week, as their offensive line was not terrible and Jacoby Brissett is much better with a lead than without. But, how were they ever ahead? I don’t want to totally disrespect New England and belittle Jerod Mayo’s first win as coach, but it was clear the Bengals looked past them and toward this week’s game against the Chiefs. The Patriots pass rush was supposed to be bad and … oh wait, it is. Joe Burrow was pressured on just six of his 35 dropbacks. The Seahawks have too many offensive weapons to not take advantage of that, and their young defense leads the league with a 44.9 percent pressure rate and a total defensive EPA at 23.96.

The pick: Seahawks 

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I don’t know about you, but I thought Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good. Still have no desire to watch his documentary, read the book about him or watch his weekly media appearances, but maybe all the distractions will be worth it at some point. There was some rust, and he was going against one of the best teams in the league, but the arm still looked live. And Breece Hall is still dangerous running and catching the ball. As for the Titans, they led the Bears 17-0 and held them to 148 yards of total offense and still lost. I know it’s a week-to-week game, but the careless plays that quarterback Will Levis made down the stretch can linger with a team. Tony Pollard should be able to run against the Jets — the 49ers’ Mason ran for 147 yards and the Jets stacked the box 50 percent of his carries — but I have no faith in Levis and we’ll see how much the Titans new coaching staff does with the gameplan.

The pick: Jets 

Let’s just say that the league-worst 65.1 passer rating since the start of last season is not a fluke, Jones doesn’t turn it around … and we’re calling for Drew Lock at halftime. The Giants might still be in this game because Jayden Daniels has a learning curve as the Commanders quarterback. (We were 1-1-1 going against rookie QBs last week.) The Buccaneers sent five or more rushers at him 47.1 percent of his dropbacks, and Daniels was content to run and didn’t do much damage until garbage time. “We’d love to see him remain a passer first,” Washington coach Dan Quinn said. While the rest of the Giants defense didn’t play well, Dexter Lawrence II did — the defensive tackle ranked third among all qualified pass rushers in pressure rate at 30.0 percent — and they have some speed on the perimeter to contain Daniels. It’s not like the Commanders can run the ball outside of Daniels.

The pick: Giants 

GO DEEPER

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The Rams lost Puka Nacua last week in the overtime loss to the Lions and are down several offensive linemen, but they should be OK here. The Cardinals don’t have much of a pass rush and their secondary is not great, so Stafford should have plenty of time to operate to find fill-ins Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson and underrated tight end Colby Parkinson. Cooper Kupp had 42 snaps and 12 touches in motion last week, traveling a distance of 436 yards, and he may top 500 on Sunday. Defensively, Rams rookie edge rusher Jared Verse tied for seventh with a 26.1 percent pressure rate and had six pressures and a sack. He will try and chase down Kyler Murray, who made some plays last week but had a -1.12 EPA rate against the blitz. Rams coach Sean McVay is 14-2 against the Cardinals and undefeated against the spread in Glendale, Ariz., and there is value here with the Cardinals now favored.

The pick: Rams 

Still have no idea how the Broncos only lost by six to the Seahawks. Their defense is not good, and their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, almost made history. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt on 42 passes — that’s the sixth-smallest number since the 1970 merger. Now he takes on a Steelers defense that terrorized Kirk Cousins last week. Justin Fields, meanwhile, looks like he will get another start over the injured Russell Wilson. Fields was a little erratic against the Falcons but he completed 73.9 percent of his passes (fourth-best of his career) and ran for 57 yards. It doesn’t really matter who is playing quarterback, as a revitalized Najee Harris and Fields will run wild over some bad Broncos linebackers.

The pick: Steelers 

Justin Fields is expected to start again and will try to get the Steelers to 2-0. (Brett Davis / USA Today)

What happened to Burrow last week? He wasn’t even pressured and couldn’t pick apart the Patriots. Was it just another slow start for the Bengals? Were they looking past the Patriots to the Chiefs, who Burrow is 3-1 against? Does it even matter against the Chiefs team that looked explosive with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy? The Bengals also don’t have a good run defense, so Isiah Pacheco could have a big night as well. And their offensive line might not be up to protecting Burrow, who likely will be without second-favorite target Tee Higgins again. This could easily be a blowout, as the hibernating Bengals are 0-4 the last two Week 2s, but give us Joe Cool (11-3 ATS as an underdog of a field goal or more) with the late score for a backdoor cover.

The pick: Bengals 

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I wanted to go against all three rookie quarterbacks again, but here I am picking the worst of the three. Caleb Williams had one of the worst Week 1 rookie starts in the NFL in 25 years, with a -0.39 EPA per dropback and 55.7 passer rating. And unlike Daniels and Nix, he is not a runner. But the Bears won that game over the Titans, thanks to Levis and special-teams shenanigans. I think that kind of feel-good win from the heavens carries over this week, and Tyrique Stevenson and the pressure-happy Bears defense are good enough to prevent C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon and Nico Collins from pulling away. Keenan Allen had an uncharacteristic drop in the end zone, and I think he and a talented receiving corps give the Bears a shot at winning this one late.

The pick: Bears 

The Eagles were a best bet last week because we (clears throat) said “Saquon Barkley puts on a show in Brazil,” and that’s what he did. His freedom from the Giants is no less glorious than Andy Dufresne’s. Barkley will do more great things against a decent Falcons front, but if the Eagles want to cover this sizable number, Jalen Hurts will have to play better than he did against the Packers. The Falcons have a formidable pass rush with Grady Jarrett and now Matthew Judon in the fold. We are on the Falcons because they will bounce back offensively this week. While most of the social media film experts think Cousins wasn’t pushing off his foot due to his old Achilles injury, it’s also true T.J. Watt was in his lap within milliseconds and that Cousins could have the same rust/few reps disease that every other bad Week 1 QB had. Cousins is a smart cookie with some real playmakers, and the Eagles give up some big plays. Take the points.

The pick: Falcons 

GO DEEPER

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Best bets: We’re taking four road teams. The Panthers over the Chargers and the Browns over the Jaguars will hang tight, the Seahawks over the Patriots and Steelers over the Broncos will rumble to wins, while the home Cowboys keep the Prescott party going against the Saints.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Panthers. Nah, just kidding. Give us the Bears (plus 6.5) stunning the Texans.

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo of Daniel Jones: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)