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The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting expert is targeting from today’s slate of games for their NFL Week 2 best bets and expert predictions. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Let’s get at it with our NFL Week 2 picks for our best bets!
NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Expert Predictions
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This is a nice buy-low spot on the Seahawks and a sell-high spot on the Lions.
The Seahawks looked abysmal in the second half of Week 1 against the Rams but will be better prepared to scheme around the absences of tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, who went down during last week’s loss. Seattle also won’t have to deal with Aaron Donald, who was a much bigger problem than the tackles, racking up four pressures and a sack.
The Seahawks still have enough weapons to hang with a Lions offense that only scored 14 points against a Chiefs defense without Chris Jones (they were gifted the other seven on Kadarius Toney’s dropped pass that went right into the hands of Brian Branch for a pick-six). This spot is reminiscent of last season when the Seahawks were +3.5 at Detroit and proceeded to roll up 48 points in a 48-45 upset.
According to our Action Labs data, Week 2 dogs +6 or less off a straight-up loss are 65-34-2 (66%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.29 points per game.
Over that same span, Week 2 road teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 are 36-21-1 (63%) ATS.
Pick: Seahawks +4.5 (Bet to +4)
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Offensively, the Falcons match up well with a Packers defense that allowed the eighth-most rushing yards in Week 1 (122) and finished 31st in run-defense DVOA in 2022. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Algeier combined for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries in Week 1.
The Falcons defense looks much improved from last season. They finished seventh in pressure rate in Week 1 (33.3%) after finishing last in 2022 (14.6%). They allowed only 10 points and 3.9 yards per play to the Panthers, with offseason addition Jessie Bates III coming up big with two interceptions and a forced fumble. The Packers offense is dealing with injuries to running back Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring) and left tackle David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), both of whom failed to practice all week. Christian Watson (questionable, hamstring) got in only a limited session on Friday after missing last week.
According to our Action Labs data, Week 2 home teams facing an opponent that won in Week 1 are 66-51-1 (56%) ATS since 2010.
Pick: Falcons -1.5 (Bet to -2)
I was on the Bucs last week, but this is a good time to sell high on Tampa Bay and buy low on Chicago. The Bucs enjoyed far more luck than the Bears in Week 1, winning by three points despite getting outgained by 127 total yards while the Bears lost by 18 points despite getting outgained by only 18 total yards.
The Bucs only gained 242 total yards – 69 fewer than the Bears – despite running 68 plays and enjoying a +3 turnover differential. It was not surprising to see the Bucs eke out a win against a fraudulent Vikings team, nor was it a surprise to see the Bears struggle against a divisional opponent that has long owned them, but the market has overreacted, moving this line 4 points from the open of Bears -1.5. Historically, the market tends to underrate teams that lost in Week 1. According to our Action Labs data, underdogs +6 or less that lost in Week 1 are 65-35-2 (65%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.3 points per game.
Pick: Bears +2.5 (+102; Bet to +1)
This figures to be a low-scoring game between two elite defenses. The Jets held the Bills to just 16 points in Week 1, and 10 of their last 13 games have ended on a total of 38 or below dating back to last season. The Cowboys are also dealing with injuries on offense to wide receiver Brandin Cooks (questionable, knee) and guard Tyler Smith (doubtful, hamstring).
The Jets allowed the third-highest pressure rate in Week 1 (42.3%) and now have to face a Cowboys defense that generated pressure at the fourth-highest rate (38.6%). The Jets running game posted 172 yards in Week 1, but that may not be sustainable, as Breece Hall picked up 83 yards on one carry. The Jets running game produced just 13 yards before contact on 28 attempts and could struggle if Hall is not able to pop a big play.
In fact, most of the Jets’ 22 points against the Bills last week came in ways that are difficult to repeat: Hall’s 83-yard run that set up a Greg Zuerlein field goal, Garrett Wilson’s ridiculous touchdown catch, and Xavier Gipson’s walk-off, 65-yard punt return. Speaking of Zuerlein, he injured his groin and has been ruled out against Dallas.
According to our Action Labs data, the under is 7-2 (78%) in Zach Wilson’s starts since the beginning of last season, including 7-0 in his last seven starts.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-115; Bet to 37.5)
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