Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but this season has proven to be a difficult one for the superstar. He continues to throw interceptions, and our NFL picks are backing him to throw another one during MNF.
When Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, it was on the back of an offensive masterclass from the now two-time regular season and Super Bowl MVP.
And while the Chiefs find themselves near the top of the NFL odds each week, it hasn’t been due to their offense. The Week 11 odds board comes to an end when the Eagles fly into Arrowhead for a highly-touted rematch, but will Mahomes turn in a Super Bowl-esque performance… or will Kansas City’s woes on offense continue?
Well, I’ve looked into the Patrick Mahomes odds available to find out those answers before I provide you my free NFL picks surrounding the man himself.
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When a quarterback lacks a complement of pass catchers that can reliably separate, they are forced to make throws into tighter windows. That has certainly been the case for Patrick Mahomes this year, who has tossed eight interceptions in nine games thus far.
His 2.4% interception rate would be the highest mark of his career as a full-season starter (his next highest is 2.0%). But what’s more puzzling is this season would also be his lowest air yards per attempt mark, meaning the implied difficulty of his throws is lower.
Yet he continues to be priced like someone who isn’t more likely to throw an interception than not. Again, he has thrown an INT in all but two games across nine so far.
The Philadelphia Eagles had the fourth-most INTs last season, and although those numbers aren’t up to par in 2023, this secondary is still a threat to capitalize on any mistakes Mahomes may make tonight.
Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-114 at FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Isiah Pacheco Over 16.5 receiving yards
Mahomes’ inability to take care of the ball relative to prior seasons has compounding effects given his inability to find the red zone through the air. His 5.1% touchdown rate this season (and not to sound like a broken record) would be his worst mark as a full-season starter.
Yet again, much like his interception market, his touchdown props are priced as if he and this Chiefs’ offense were scoring like they had in years past. He has gone Under his passing touchdown prop in seven of this year’s nine games.
As we build out this matchup narrative of Mahomes’ receivers being unable to get open and Mahomes having a hard time airing it out, it may be wise to look at what Mahomes’ alternatives are to keep the chains moving.
Isiah Pacheco has been more effective than not in the passing game, averaging 3.2 targets and 18.8 receiving yards across his last six games. The Eagles currently allow the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs in the league.
If Mahomes continues to struggle to connect with his receivers in a meaningful way, we may see an excess of dump offs to Pacheco.
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