We’re back with a huge slate in the NBA tonight.
It’s a 12-game slate, including two games that will be featured on ESPN.
We’ll be looking to bet on the first basket scorer in a few games tonight. I’ve narrowed our options and picked my three best bets for the night.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sacramento Kings vs. Atlanta Hawks
Over the last ten games, the Atlanta Hawks have won the tip 60% of the time while scoring the first field goal 70% of the time.
The Hawks have needed just two shots per game to score their first bucket, while the Kings have needed nearly three shots to score their first bucket.
Sacramento has only won the tip 50% of the time. But even worse, the Kings have scored the first field goal in one of their last ten games.
The Hawks should end up scoring first, especially at home. Although Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have the best probability of scoring first, John Collins seems to have the most value.
Collins has scored the team’s first field goal in four of Atlanta’s last ten games. He’s also scored the first field goal in a game twice over those last ten games.
He’s sitting at +950 with the lowest odds of any Atlanta player. There’s a ton of value there.
Bet: John Collins (+950)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
Although the Dallas Mavericks have won the tip 80% of the time over the last ten games, the Mavericks have only scored the first field goal 30% of the time.
Dallas needs three shots per game before making its first bucket of the game.
On the other hand, the Celtics are only winning the tip 40% of the time. But they’ve at least scored the first field goal in 60% of games. On top of that, Boston has only needed 2.1 shots before knocking in their first field goal.
According to oddsmakers, Jaylen Brown has the highest probability of scoring first. But Jayson Tatum has scored the game’s first field goal in four of Boston’s last ten games. He’s ultimately putting up one shot of the first three for the Celtics over the last ten games.
Back Tatum to score first tonight.
Bet: Jayson Tatum (+420)
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bulls have won 60% of tips over the last ten games. But, like the Mavericks, they’ve struggled to score first. The Bulls have earned 30% first baskets over the last ten games and have finally needed 2.3 shots per game to hit that first basket.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have won the tip 50% of the time but have also scored the first field goal 60% of the time. Milwaukee has needed only two shots per game to score its first basket.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be the most bet. He’s knocked in two first-field goals in his last seven starts. But what about Javon Carter?
He’s the last player on the list for the Bucks to score first. He’s sitting at +1400 despite scoring the team’s first field goal in four of their last ten games.
Carter benefitted from Giannis being out. But he’s taking more volume early compared to Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, and Jrue Holiday.
Take a long shot.
Bet: Javon Carter (+1400)
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