After another profitable festival last week at Goodwood for Gavin Smith, he returns with horse racing predictions tips for today’s cards at Pontefract and Yarmoth.
Wednesday Horse Racing Prediction
Gavin Smith has 7 points worth of tips spread across three selections and a trixie bet on all three tips today.
Remember that you can add the selections to your Easyodds bet slip by clicking on the odds below. You can compare the best price available with leading bookies to ensure you always get the best price on everyt bet you place,
3:50 Pontefract Tips
1m (1m6y) Riu Hotels And Resorts Ladies Day Veterans’ Handicap (Class 4) (6yo+ 0-80)
Zlatan – 1pt Each Way – 14/1 (General)
The first selection of the day is Zlatan in the 3:50 Pontefract.
Zlatan looks well handicapped and I’m sure he will land a race this summer.
His last win came at Sandown in July last year off a mark of 68.
Since then, he has hit the frame off marks of 71, 72, 70, and 72 as well as a fourth beaten just 1 3/4 lengths off 72 too.
He has had four runs this season, the first two were very solid efforts achieving RPRs of 75 and 77 when finishing 4th of 11 and 3rd of 8 beaten 1¾ lengths and 1 length.
His second two runs, not so good. He finished last of 7 beaten 12 lengths at Bath but I’m always happy to forgive one bad run. To be fair to him, the 12th of 13 last time out at Sandown was not his fault. He has a very inexperienced amateur jockey aboard and she went off like a rocket giving him no chance at the business end.
As a result of the two poor runs, he is back down to a mark of 68. That is just 1lb higher than his last win and also 4lb lower than his two solid runs at the start of this campaign.
He has had three runs at Ponte, finishing second twice, so he clearly handles the unique track just fine.
He is pretty versatile ground wise and will be fine with the Good ground declared and will arguably be even better if the rain forecast comes and softens it to Good to Soft. I’m not convinced he would want proper soft ground though.
All things considered, I feel he has a great each way chance today and 14/1 looks a very nice price.
4:50 Pontefract Tips
5f (5f3y) Fbs Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75)
Van Gerwen – 1pt Each Way – 8/1 (4 places)
Up next, we have Van Gerwen in the 4:50 Pontefract.
Van Gerwen is a course regular at Pontefract with 3 wins, 5 seconds and a third from 22 runs at the course.
I tipped him up a couple of times earlier in the season and he ran well without winning. I was typically away on a friend’s Stag Do weekend when he did win at Nottingham opening at 16/1 and going off at 9/1, which was a blow. That win came off a mark of 66.
He then put in a poor run next time out on Soft ground off a mark of 71.
He ran a very respectably race next time out to finish 4th of 12 at York off the same mark of 71, which suggests the poor run the time before was due to the ground.
He was surprisingly dropped 2lb for that run and went back to York later in July but his saddle slipped, so his race was over at that point and therefore that run can easily be forgiven.
Surprisingly, he was dropped a further 2lb for that, despite there being an obvious reason for the poor run. So, he comes back now off a mark of 67, 4lb lower than when running very respectably in 4th at York two runs back.
This now puts him just 1lb higher than his win earlier this season and between that and a return to Pontefract, I cannot see him being far away today. Like Zlatan, I think he has a great each way chance and 9/1 looks a very nice price all things considered.
I would recommend backing with at 8/1 for 4 places. 9/1 is available elsewhere but for only 3 places. I feel an extra place for half a point less is a no brainer.
7:10 Yarmouth Tips
5f (5f42y) At The Races App Form Study Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)
Electric Love – 1pt Each Way – 5/1 (4 places)
Finally, we have Electric Love who runs in the 7:10 Yarmouth.
This horse was 4/1 earlier this morning and I was looking at a 1pt win bet. However, the horse has drifted to 5/1 now, so I’m going to play 1pt Each Way instead.
This horse won twice over course and distance last season off marks of 57 and 63.
She then followed that up by hitting the frame in her next two runs off 71 and 73.
She made a nice reappearance at Epsom off a mark of 74 when finishing 5th of 12, beaten 2¾ lengths after being denied a clear run.
She ran a shade disappointingly next time when 4th at Nottingham when keeping on at the finish but never near to challenge. That was under a 7lb claimer though, so perhaps there is an excuse there.
She then flopped when favourite next time out at Nottingham again but in her defence, she was hampered at the start. Over this minimum trip, you cannot afford to be losing ground like that at the start.
She returned to Yarmouth last time and I thought she would have a great chance but she put in a poor run when sent off 5/4 favourite. The trainer’s rep was questioned but could offer no explanation for the poor form shown and the Vet could find no abnormalities. Sometimes with fillies/mares, they can put in poor runs if they are in season for example. The fact she was sent off favourite shows that better was expected.
She now returns back over the same course and distance with cheekpieces applied for the first time. She was also dropped 3lb for last time, so races here off a mark of 67 which should be well within her reach if she bounces back to her best.
She should be winning this race and it is hard to see what connections will do with her if she fails to at least run well here. It’s now or never time for her and if she does flop, she will be out of my tracker and avoided moving forwards.
Again, I’d advise backing with 4 places (same price of 5/1 as elsewhere).
Trixie – 0.125pt Each Way (1pt total)
In addition to the three singles, I’m also going to play a small Trixie on the three selections today as I feel they all have a great chance of making the frame and could easily be winning these races.
Total Outlay – 7 points.