WTA San Diego is underway and the quality of tennis has been through the roof so far!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday’s matchups — Collins vs Chirico and Kudermetova vs Kenin.
Read on for my WTA San Diego picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA San Diego Odds, Picks
Danielle Collins (-700) vs Louisa Chirico (+440)
1:30 p.m. ET
Danielle Collins last played at the US Open, where she fell 6-3, 6-7(7), 1-6 to Elise Mertens in the second round. Collins won 67% of her first serves, but only 48% of her second serves and was broken five times. In addition, the American won 51% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Collins is now 16-13 on hard courts this season, going 7-4 during the summer swing. For her career, Collins is a strong 156-96 on hard. She has a big first serve and has a powerful backhand. The American hits with controlled aggression from this wing, forcing her opponents’ on the defensive. Collins has an aggressive but less consistent, forehand too. Collins does sometimes try to finish points too early, though.
Louisa Chirico qualified for San Diego, defeating Renata Zarazua 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 in the final qualifying round. Chirico won 61% of her service points, getting broken three times. The American also won 55% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions.
Chirico is best on clay, with a 5-7 hard court record in 2023. As a professional, Chirico is 136-122 on the surface. The American lacks big weapons, but has a fairly heavy forehand and is a quick mover. She anticipates well, absorbs pace fairly effectively and is consistent from the ground. Chirico also has a high tennis IQ. With that said, she lacks power and placement to her game.
While Chirico can absorb pace fairly effectively and moves well, she is going to be severely underpowered in this matchup. Collins’ controlled aggression seemed to click better during the summer hard court swing and she should be dictating baseline play.
Collins’ backhand should be the best shot on the court. She should be able to hit through Chirico during baseline exchanges, as Chirico’s defensive skills are not at the level to blunt Collins’ power. And Collins should dominate the backhand-to-backhand exchanges, forcing errors and short balls from Chirico’s backhand.
Finally, Collins’ overall Elo rating is 343.9 points higher than Chirico’s and her hard court Elo is 361.4 points above her’s.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
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Veronika Kudermetova (-142) vs Sofia Kenin (+118)
3 p.m. ET
Veronika Kudermetova continues to struggle, most recently losing 5-7, 4-6 to Bernarda Pera in the US Open first round. Kudermetova hit just 10 winners versus 21 unforced errors, winning 54% of her service points. And while the Russian won 52% of her second serve returns and generated 12 break points, she broke just twice.
Kudermetova has an 11-10 record this year on hard, but she’s gone just 1-3 during the summer hard-court swing without facing a single player currently in the top 50. Kudermetova has good placement on her first serve, strong court positioning and a big forehand that she uses to dictate play. The Russian doesn’t mind being on the defensive, as she absorbs pace effectively and anticipates well. She’s also strong at the net.
But especially lately Kudermetova has been inconsistent, overhitting her forehand and losing her range from the backhand side.
Sofia Kenin made the second round of the US Open, but fell 6-2, 4-6, 4-6 to Daria Kasatkina. Kenin, who hit 30 winners against 44 unforced errors, won just 51% of her first serves, getting broken on seven occasions. The American did win 73% of her first-serve returns, breaking seven times herself.
Kenin is 9-9 on hard in 2023, having only played in New York following Wimbledon. A former Australian Open champion, Kenin has a strong 163-104 career-record on the surface. She is mentally tough, anticipates successfully and can turn defense-into-offense quickly. She is a cerebral player who constructs points well, utilizing a varied shot selection and placement to keep her opponents off-balance. The American also can hit with controlled aggression into targets.
However, Kenin’s groundstrokes can break down and she doesn’t have overwhelming power.
Kudermetova has struggled recently and I look for that to continue here. She’s been overhitting her groundstrokes, which plays right into Kenin’s hands.
Kenin should be able to draw points out and force the Russian to lower her margins. Her ability to keep the ball out of her opponents’ strike zones should also be vital, especially given how low Kudermetova’s confidence is right now.
In addition, Kenin is the craftier player and has the edge in cat-and-mouse points.
Pick: Kenin ML (+118 via FanDuel)
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