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After a tough road loss to Tennessee, Alabama returns to Tuscaloosa to face Missouri. The Crimson Tide, struggling in the post-Saban era, are in must-win territory if they hope to make the new 12-team playoff.
They have a challenging road game at LSU still on the horizon, but a home win here would keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, Missouri is eyeing a playoff spot, too, despite being one of the more inconsistent 6-1 teams in the SEC.
Last week, QB Brady Cook left the game with an ankle injury but returned to lead a comeback win — a fitting snapshot of Missouri’s unpredictable season.
Alabama’s offense raises concerns. They’ve struggled to establish a run game, and that challenge isn’t likely to get easier against a Missouri defense ranked 34th in rush defense.
If Alabama leans heavily on Jalen Milroe’s arm, they’ll face a Missouri pass defense that has proven reliable this season. I see Missouri’s defense slowing the game down to keep it close. Missouri’s offense isn’t built for a shootout but has star receivers to lean on.
With the line moving from -14.5 to -17.5, we now have the room to back Missouri’s defense to cover. Alabama will likely settle for a close win, but the Tigers +17.5 is a great number.
Best bet: Missouri +17.5 (-110)
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