PROJECTED POINTS: 11.4

Matt: If you held on to Sutton through the first seven weeks of the season — especially during a disastrous, target-less Week 7 — you might be pretty excited about his back-to-back 10-target, 100-yard performances. And while they could be signs of increased chemistry with rookie QB Bo Nix, I’m tempering expectations for Week 10 against the Chiefs.

Kansas City has allowed just 106.4 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position, the fewest in the league heading into Week 10 and around 40 yards per game fewer than the league median. Only one wideout (Darnell Mooney) has topped this projection against the Chiefs without scoring a touchdown, and Sutton’s only scored two TDs in nine games. In a TD-or-bust game, I’m not willing to bet on a score.