The Indiana Pacers have the two most pivotal parts of a title contender already in place: a bedrock superstar around which their entire team can orbit (Tyrese Haliburton), and a co-star who is more likely to be overqualified than under-qualified as the No. 2 option of a really good team.

Supporting talent retention and advancement are the factors that will swing what happens next.

Indiana has locked up Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin for the duration of this window but faces tough decisions after next season. T.J. McConnell and, more notably, Myles Turner are scheduled for free agency. Bennedict Mathurin will be extension-eligible.

This roster is going to change—most likely in uncomfortable ways. Indiana isn’t going to pay everyone, particularly with two max guys already on the books. The Pacers can maybe float the status quo for another year after this one, but keeping Turner may come down to shedding salary elsewhere, likely in the form of Toppin.

Grappling with payroll gymnastics is always tough. It’s even more complicated for Indiana. The Pacers are reaching this point before growing into a finished product. This core needs, at minimum, another capable wing defender for the playoff crucible.

Maybe that’s Jarace Walker. But his role and fit are increasingly fuzzy with Siakam and Toppin slated for major minutes. Using him as the de facto 3 isn’t guaranteed to work at either end, though it feels doable on defense, even if Walker has to be more disciplined.

Do the Pacers have the time and space and stomach for developmental reps while operating on an immediate timeline? If they don’t, are they willing to move Walker and/or Mathurin for a better-fitting contributor? And can they do that while squeezing whomever comes back into their salary structure?

Fresh off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, Indiana’s organizational progress is undeniable. But it’s now tasked with transitioning from good to great, an absurdly difficult leap that, as things stand, cannot be assured.