2024 presidential odds: Harris gaining on Trump, who still leads (Nov. 3 update)

Posted by author November 3, 2024 Gambling

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The closer it gets, the closer it gets.

Former President Donald Trump has enjoyed a comfortable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris across betting markets, but over the past few days, Harris is gaining ground.

According to Real Clear Polling, Trump now enjoys a 53.6% lead over Harris (45.1%) across betting odds. Trump has held the lead since the start of October, and just last week held a double-digit lead over Harris.

Harris had a big jump over the past 24 hours. On Saturday afternoon, Trump’s lead was 58.3 to 40.3.

Harris is gaining ground just about everywhere, but Trump still owns the lead across all markets.

BetOnline has Trump up, 56-44. Betfair and Polymarket have it 52-44. Betsson, Bovada, Bwin and Polymarket all have it 54-46.

If you’re hoping to win money on Harris, you might want to place your bets now, because her odds are just going up. However, if you think Trump will be the next president, you might want to wait until his odds drop a little lower to make more money.

Either way, you have two days to place your bets.

Bettors push Trump’s probability of winning higher than in previous elections

Trump’s probability of winning is now just a few percentage points below the high the campaign hit on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his probability of defeating Biden was more than 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite in the month before the election has lost only twice, in 1916 and 1948. The betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s win in 2016.

-Jim Sergent

How much money has been bet on the election?

Though previously banned in the United States, Americans have bet more than $100 million, legally, on this election, according to NPR.